Will My Son Or Daughter Be Drafted?

What You Can Do About It Right Now.
"I Wish My Parents Had Done This For Me."

By Richard J. Maybury
http://educate-yourself.org/cn/willyourchildbedrafted04jan03.shtml
December 7, 2002

Many times in my newsletter I have explained that George Bush's incessant threat, "You are either with us or with the terrorists," allows no neutrality. It means Bush has drafted every government on earth into the war, making this the third world war. Shortly I will explain why we should expect the war to last at least for the rest of the decade, and probably several decades. As Washington spreads the war from one country to the next, often for purposes that have nothing to do with defending America, my readers send more questions about a possible draft. These are my answers. Incidentally, sometimes I am asked, whose side are you on? Am I on the side of the Republicans? Democrats? Iraq? Washington? The so-called terrorists? I am on the side of the American GI. I believe he or she should not be sent to die for stupid, corrupt purposes.

...Answers to Frequently Asked Questions...

What are the odds a draft will happen?

The draft was discontinued in 1973. I think chances of it being revived are greater than 90%. Here is why.
Before 9-11, the Pentagon had a "one and one-half war" policy. This meant they had the ability to fight and win one "regional" war and half of a similar conflict. A regional war was generally regarded as something on the scale of the 1990-91 war between Bush senior and Saddam Hussein; this was a small war. The present war is history's first global guerrilla war. The US armed forces are in no way prepared for a big guerrilla war, and they are already spread very thin. Here is a comment from INSIDE THE ARMY, November 11, 2002, page 1: "DOD is considering deploying Army GIs to fulfill USAF security needs around the world, even though Army brass have publicly stated that the service is stretched to the limit in meeting its own operational demands." Let me emphasize, they are "stretched to the limit," and they have not yet gone to war with Iraq. With this global war spreading fast, Washington's desire for troops can only increase.

What are the chances women will be drafted?

In my opinion, 75%; this is the age of legal equality. Females may not be drafted as soon as males, but I think it will happen. They also may not be sent into front-line combat units, but this is a war with no real front lines; rear area units are almost as likely to be targets as those at the front. After all, what could be further from the front than the World Trade Center? Do not be misled by Washington's promise that women soldiers will not be sent into combat. In much of the Islamic world, it is strictly taboo for a man to touch or even look at a woman to whom he is not related. In Afghanistan, guerrillas take advantage of this by having women smuggle rifles and other military equipment under their robes. The guerrillas know American male troops risk a spontaneous attack by onlookers if they search the women. To make searches less risky, the 82nd Airborne sends female troops on patrol to do the searches.1 In short, the promise not to send women on ground combat missions has already been broken.

What ages will be drafted?

Impossible to say. It depends on how many people the government thinks it needs. The Vietnam War was a small war, and the government drafted up to age 26. The first US draft was in the much larger Civil War, 1861 to 1865. At the beginning of the Civil War, in both North and South, the draft applied to men ages 18 to 35. As the demand for troops increased, this pool was not large enough, and the age was raised. In the South the demand for troops was so strong the draft age eventually reached 50. In the 4th draft registration of World War II, men as old as 65 were required to register. As far as I know, no one this old was ever drafted, but the registration shows that the government had not ruled out the possibility. Again, the age cut-off always depends on how many people they want. A complicating factor today is that as the government expands the war, making more enemies around the world, it has been strengthening its own defenses. In the face of this hardening of US government facilities, the attackers will be forced to focus their efforts on soft (less protected) non-federal facilities such as schools, night clubs, sports stadiums and churches. US schools alone number more than 120,000 and churches exceed 350,000. Total US military personnel including reserves and national guard number only about 2.4 million, so it is obvious that soft targets cannot be protected with present manpower.

What would be a realistic estimate of the number of troops Washington will want to draft?

As far as I can tell, there is no limit, because the scope of the war has no limit. In a 1974 survey of 108 Army generals who had served in Vietnam, 70% said Washington's objectives were not clear, and 52% said the stated objectives could not be achieved.2 By war's end, Americans killed for these fuzzy, unachievable objectives numbered 58,014. I would not be surprised if a similar survey of generals today would show even less confidence in Washington's judgement. The objectives of the "war on terrorism" make those of the Vietnam war look like models of crystal clear thinking. The combined effect of the September 14, 2001 and October 11, 2002 war votes by democrats and republicans in Congress, has been to give the president carte blanche to attack anyone, anywhere, for any reason. In short, there is no restriction on how far the government can expand the war, so there is no limit on how many troops it will try to draft.

Should my son or daughter register for the draft?

I would not do anything illegal, for three reasons. First, if the law requires registering, I'd do it because breaking the law is a red flag. Non-registration is an invitation for the government to hunt down the draft dodger and make an example of him or her. Second, living an underground existence, always in hiding, looking over one's shoulder, would be awful. Third, if your son or daughter does eventually end up in the military, a record for draft dodging will greatly reduce his or her ability to maneuver within the system. Tagged as a malcontent, the draft dodger gets the worst duty, with few options. And, choices within the system can make all the difference. Odds of getting killed while carrying a rifle in Afghanistan, for instance, are a lot greater than odds of getting killed peeling potatoes at a remote weather station in Alaska.

Will it be safe for draft dodgers to go to Canada, as many did in the Vietnam War?

Maybe, but I would not count on it. Each year the Canadian government becomes less independent of the US government. The Canadian government may be coerced into extraditing American draft dodgers. Other governments further from the US are less likely to obey Washington's commands.

What is the difference between draft dodging and desertion?

Draft dodging is evading induction into the armed forces. Desertion is leaving after one has been inducted.
The difference is not trivial. Never, never, never assume you can go into the military and then, if you don't like it, leave. The worst that comes from draft dodging is imprisonment, but desertion during wartime can mean a firing squad.

How long is the war likely to last?

Democrats and republicans in Congress, and the Bush administration have all decided to treat 9-11 as an act of war instead of a crime. They hired crooked Afghan drug lords to do most of the fighting in Afghanistan. The crooks sold out to the enemy and let them escape. Bush then turned his focus to Saddam Hussein, diverting attention from the failure in Afghanistan. In my opinion, this is the most incompetently-led war since World War I,
and it is the first war I have ever heard of in which the leaders have no plan for ending it, or intention of doing so.
When homeland security chief Tom Ridge was asked when the war would end, he said the war would be a "permanent condition."3 As far as I can tell, Washington simply plans to keep spending American blood and treasure until they are all gone.

What is the most important point to bear in mind about the draft?

The most important fact to remember is that government officials are as human as the rest of us. Not only do they change their minds, they are driven by the same needs, wants, desires, loves, fears and hatreds as the rest of us.
Their behavior is not predictable. Do not waste time trying to develop a plan to cope with what you or someone else thinks officials will do. Develop a plan that offers your son or daughter as many options as possible, and will work no matter what the government does. You might hope there will be draft exemptions for college students. Or, you might expect exemptions for conscientious objectors, or for persons with jobs in weapons plants.
Base your plans not on your hopes but on realistic possibilities, and remember that political power corrupts the morals and the judgement. The government will do what is best for the government, your children are expendable.

Do Not Break The Law Again, whatever you do, don't break the law. The government is in a highly emotional state and looking for people to make examples of. Breaking the law is like waving a red flag at an angry bull.

Okay, so what should you do?

Every family is different. I do not know you and cannot develop a plan for your personal requirements, but I can tell you what I wish my parents had done for me. Here is my story:

The big Vietnam buildup began in 1965 when I was 18 years old. My friends and I, who numbered about a dozen and had just graduated from high school, tried to escape the draft by going to college. In those days, college students were exempt if they kept their grades up. Unfortunately, Washington wanted a lot more troops than it had, and at that time it was not interested in ending the war. (Sound familiar?) In 1966, my friends and I all received notices to report for our pre-induction physical exams. A few months later we began receiving draft notices. We had been trying to ignore the war. The very thought of it created knots of fear in our stomachs, and we would not face the reality of it. Refusing even to talk about it, we learned nothing about it, or about its causes.
Our parents had adopted the same attitude. They refused to face the war, and did little to prepare us for it. Part of the problem was my classmates and I were all born in 1946. We were the first of the baby boomers, raised on a steady diet of World War II films and books, plus stories told by our fathers and uncles who had been in World War II. To us, the World War II generation were heroes, and we lived in great fear that we would not be able to live up to the example they had set. I believe many young people today remain as blinded by World War II legends and myths as we were then. Worse, we had all been raised in government-controlled schools, and had been inculcated with a statist view of history. We didn't even know a non-statist view existed; I didn't find out until 1972. So, we trusted the government, and when it said the war was for a good cause, we believed it.

Grossly naïve about real politics, when we received our draft notices we were like deer caught in a car's headlights. My own response was to decide that I'd rather have hot meals and sleep in a clean bed than crawl around in Vietnam's rice paddies, so I joined the air force instead of the army. Others of my friends allowed themselves to be drafted into the army, and a few chose the navy. By the time it was all over, I had nearly been killed several times for nothing, and some of my friends had been killed. For nothing. If you cannot face what war is really about, skip the next section.

The Saddest Case

The saddest case was a friend I will call Fred. Fred was burned to death by napalm. When his mother found out, she ended up in a mental hospital. Some friends emerged from the war without serious physical injury, but I still wonder about their emotional health. After returning stateside, for instance, I ran into a young man with whom I had gone to air force tech school. Asked what the war had been like for him, Sam (not his real name) gushed enthusiasm, and said he was thinking about volunteering to go back. Sam had been a crew member on C-123 cargo planes. The C-123 has a tail ramp. In hot weather the ramp can be left open for ventilation. One can sit at the end of the ramp facing rearward, dangling his feet, and have the feel of riding a magic carpet. Sam said it was routine in his squadron to take along M-16 rifles when doing air drops. After a drop, the planes would return to base flying low. Crew members who were not busy would sit on the ramps with their M-16s, and shoot men, women and children working in the rice paddies. Sam said it was better than shooting rabbits from a jeep, great fun. When I said, but that's murder, Sam said, no it's not, they're all gooks.

This is what guerrilla war does to a soldier's ethics, and the war we are in today is the biggest guerrilla war the world has ever seen. In a guerrilla war, the troops cannot distinguish the guerrillas from ordinary people, so they eventually throw up their hands and become high-tech barbarians killing everyone, as my friend did, and as Lieutenant Calley and his men did in the village of My Lai. Anyone who tells you My Lai was unusual does not know much about guerrilla war. I have no idea where Sam is today, but I often wonder how he lives with the fact that he shot innocent men, women and children as if they were rabbits. I also wonder how much of Vietnam PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder) is not from the stress of battle but from veterans having done something they are not proud of. Let me emphasize, the "war on terrorism" is the biggest guerrilla war the world has ever seen. Washington's enemies have surely studied the Vietnam war, and I am certain they plan to recreate the circumstances that will turn American troops into mass murderers.

Secrets and Lies

When I was in the air force, the greatest shock I had was learning the government would not only send us to die for lies, it would send us to die for things that were dishonorable, even unconstitutional. Again, political power corrupts the morals and the judgement, history teaches no clearer lesson. Why was the bombing of Cambodia a secret? To keep the enemy from finding out, right? Hardly. The enemy knew about the bombing, the bombs were falling on them. The bombing could only have been secret to keep the American people from finding out.
I should point out that my own life-threatening experiences were not in Vietnam. I flew in and out of Vietnam but was never stationed there. When I had been in the air force about six months, I had the chance to get stationed in Panama instead of Vietnam. I went for it, in the belief that Panama was not a battleground. That belief turned out half right. I discovered, just because a war is not in the headlines, does not mean the US isn't involved. While I was stationed there, Panama had two revolutions, and other parts of Latin America were violent, too. You might remember the name Che Guevera. None of it was anywhere near as bad as Vietnam, but it was not as peaceful as I expected, either. The US government uses its troops for a lot of foreign meddling no one ever hears about. This, in fact, is how we got into the present war, but that is another story.

What I Wish My Parents Had Done

In my opinion, here is what my parents should have done long before I received my draft notice. I wish my parents had researched the Vietnam War, learned where it came from, and where it was likely to lead, then persuaded me to do the same so that I could make informed decisions. By no means should they have trusted what the government said about the war.

"The first casualty when war comes is truth."
--Senator Hiram Johnson, 1917

We now know that, again and again, President Johnson stated privately that he did not believe the Vietnam war was winnable,5 while in public he said the opposite, and continued to send American soldiers to die.
As soon as the Gulf of Tonkin incident happened in 1964, my parents should have begun encouraging me to get interested in traveling to see the world. Young people have been hitting the road for centuries - seeing the world before they marry and settle down - and this is what my parents should have persuaded me to prepare for.
Immediately after the start of the war, my parents should have begun helping me learn how to get a passport and work permits in foreign countries. They should have encouraged me to research various countries I might like to visit, and jobs I would like to do - perhaps work on a cattle ranch in Australia, or on a fishing boat in Nigeria.
A good way to start this kind of research today is to contact embassies and ask them about requirements for prolonged visits.

Check the Internet.

The most important part of this strategy would have been the emotional preparation. My parents should have helped me become comfortable with the possibility that I might wander from country to country, not seeing home or family for years. I might even have had to become a permanent resident of another country. The separation would have been hard, but better than being killed for nothing, or becoming a murderer. When the draft approached, I would then have been emotionally and mentally prepared to make a fully informed decision about my future. I might have chosen to go into the military, or I might have chosen to get out of Dodge. Whatever my decision, my parents would have known they had done all they could to make sure I did have that choice.

If I had decided to see the world, I could have done so incommunicado, or I could have had my mail sent to a friend who could have secretly passed it along to my family. In either case, when government agents arrived at my parents' house asking why I had not responded to my draft notice, my parents could have said, sorry, he has not lived here in a long time. He packed his bags and went to New Zealand. He hasn't done anything illegal, he left before his draft notice arrived, and we haven't heard from him since. His notice is here on the table waiting for him, we'll give it to him the moment he returns. If the agents asked when I did plan to return, my parents could have honestly said, we don't know, he told us he wanted to see the world, and after New Zealand he might go to Argentina or China. Or South Africa, or Easter Island. He also said something about the Seychelles and Mindanao. And Tierra del Fuego. And Berlin. And Disneyland. My parents could have said, he saved his money and researched foreign countries for years, we'll be happy to give you a complete list. We wouldn't want to break the law, we'll cooperate in any way we can, we'll even give you his notes about all the cities and towns he studied. That is what I wish my parents had done for me.

By the way, it is highly unlikely that government agents would squander their limited manpower and money scouring the world for draft dodgers. It's a big planet. But one never knows, so a good routine precaution when traveling from one country to another is to pass through a third country whose government has been stabbed in the back by Washington. When traveling from, say, India to Russia, spend a day in Iran. Washington backed the brutal Shah of Iran for 25 years, so Iranian officials today do not cooperate with US officials, and one's trail would end in Iran; where you went next would be a mystery.

Face the Problem

Most importantly, my parents should not have let their decisions about helping me be guided by wishful thinking.
Maybe the war would have ended before the draft got me. Maybe I would have flunked my physical. Maybe, if I went into the army, I would have spent the whole war stationed in London. Or maybe I would have been sent to Vietnam but gotten back without a scratch. All these outcomes were possible, but I would not have wanted my parents to pin their hopes on them. They should have faced the problem squarely, and done all they could to give me options, so that I would not have been blindly led into risking my life for nothing, or for things I would later be ashamed of (which I am).

It may be that the draft will be activated, and your son or daughter will decide to accept it and go into the military. But they should do this from their own free choice, after studying the evidence and deciding it is the ethical thing to do, not because they are deer frozen in the headlights. Presently young people are inundated by the statist view of the war. To give them an introduction to the non-statist side, I have written three books that trace the whole conflict back more than ten centuries. Total reading time for the set of all three is about ten hours. For the clearest understanding of the non-statist view of how we got into the third world war, the books should be read in this order:

>The Thousand Year War

>War I, The Rest Of The Story And How It Affects You Today

>World War II, The Rest Of The Story And How It Affects You Today

I am convinced the reason we are in the third world war is, we were lied to about the first and second world wars. So, to be fair, I warn you right now, if you cannot believe the government would lie, you will not like these books. As a further help toward making a fully informed decision about military service, I suggest you encourage your son or daughter to see three movies that give a rather accurate depiction of the real thing. They might have a useful prophylactic effect.

Colonel David Hackworth is the most decorated living veteran, including eight purple hearts,6 and probably America's most experienced and knowledgeable military expert. When SAVING PRIVATE RYAN came out in 1998, Hackworth told me the first 20 minutes were the most authentic depiction of real war he had ever seen.
BLACKHAWK DOWN released in 2001 is horrifically accurate - almost a minute-by-minute documentary - about what happened in Somalia. WE WERE SOLDIERS released in 2002 shows a battle in Vietnam.
Be aware that none of these movies is for the faint hearted, you are not likely to enjoy them, but this is why every young person thinking about going into the military should see them. You want your son or daughter to make informed decisions. Before I close, let me repeat: whatever you do, do not encourage your son or daughter to break the law. There are more than 200 countries, many quite fascinating and inviting. Every year, millions of young men and women from around the globe hit the road to experience life abroad before they settle down.
My parents should have encouraged me to prepare to be one of them, and I hope you will do this for your son or daughter.

Best of luck to you and yours, I sincerely hope everything turns out well for you. Please feel free to make copies of this article and pass them along to everyone you care about.7 And, if you do plan to help your son or daughter, please do not delay, start now, when you finish reading this sentence, because you do not know when the draft will arrive at your doorstep.

Richard Maybury
Editor of Early Warning Report For Investors and former member of the 605th Air Commando Squadron

<http://www.richardmaybury.com>
1-800-509-5400, fax 602-943-2363

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1 Air Force Times, 23 Sep 02, p.28.
2 "A Decade After War...," Wall Street Journal, 14 Jan 85, p.1.
3 "Poor Tom," The Economist, 20 Apr 02, p.33.
4 Napalm is jellied gasoline, usually contained in bombs dropped from planes. In Vietnam the enemy did not have napalm.
5 "Trust Still So Low That Tragedy Can't Woo Recruits," by George S. Kulas, Army Times, 29 Apr 02, p.54.
6 The Purple Heart is awarded for being wounded in battle.
7 Permission to make and distribute up to 100 copies is hereby granted to Early Warning Report subscribers and to purchasers of this report, but to no one else.

U.S. & World Early Warning Report For Investors. Published monthly except April and December.
© 2002 Henry Madison Research, PO Box 84908-D, Phoenix, AZ 85071. Phone toll-free 1-800-509-5400.
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