By Philip N. Ledoux
http://educate-yourself.org/pnl/predictworldseconomy05may07.shtml
May 5, 2007

Reverse engineering has been an art and a science long before modern history. In recent history electronic circuits have been prevented from being reverse engineered by creating many seemingly inter-related parts, etched boards, etc. and encapsulating it in opaque epoxy. Usually it slows down the reverse engineering effort enough for a profit to be made on the invention.

Economics has been tried to reverse engineer or at least put together an equivalent model of a country's or even the world's economy. It will appear to operate, but fails within a decade. The closest anyone has come is a 200 to 300 year rise of various civilizations a rise from obscurity to supremacy. Not bad when looking back through millennia, but not very good as a predictor in the recent short term. Somebody "way back when" knew how to put a monkey-wrench into any attempt to map or predict world economies.

An obvious question becomes: how can you write so confidently about a monkey-wrench? Well, not because I was so smart, but because I recognized (very slowly) an accidental discovery for what it really was. My original effort was to try to improve on an engineer's 10 year effort via 4 part harmonics to predict the DJIA [Dow Jones Industrial Average], which he succeeded in doing 75% of the time (historical checked by myself). An amazing feat by any yardstick. Smugly, I decided to do him one better via 5 part harmonic analysis. Two years later I had something by the tail but it was more in the order of a salamander or a mouse, I needed a tiger. Another year of fiddling with phase shifting and I had a great big pussy-cat, or that's what it seemed to me, until a broker friend told me what I had. Luckily the tiger was asleep, but later it would attack me! (Depending on your perspective, my analogies might be too loose or not loose enough.)

Here are the facts that I started with: Kondratief had discovered a 52 year depression cycle, the bottom of The Great Depression occurred 1932 and I reasoned that any predictive device would have to work within that 52 year cycle, and the cycle probably ended or started in 1932, and a sine-wave is universal in nature and engineering and probably in "everything."

The basic tool I was trying to develop was nothing more than 5 simultaneous sine waves the parts being 52, 26, 13, 6 1/2, and 3 1/4 years in length; that (the years) became the horizontal or "X" axis of a plot. The harmonic of all this is nothing more than the trig sine values of each wave determined by the unit value of the graph plot or 1 year points to make it simple. After 2 years of hand calculations I certainly had something but it didn't make sense, nor did it predict anything no matter what I compared it to. 

[Note from Ken Adachi: Phil is explaining a 5 part harmonic analysis. He takes the number of 52 years and then divides that in half to get 26; and divides 26 in half to get 13; and divides 13 in half to get 6.5; and divides 6.5 in half to get 3.25]

With a heavy background in electronics I decided to try phase shifting. Another year or more of creating graphs with various phase shifts simultaneously to all the 5 waves, I found something that easily related to "something." That something was all the wars on the American Continent, except the American Revolution, occurred at the easily recognized tops in the graph! A broker friend who knew and remembered the economy inside out, because of the loss of a leg as a boy which fired him up to become a broker, explained what I had found. During his lifetime I had traced the economy exactly. Hmmmm.

With persistence, using old encyclopedias and burning the oil in libraries, the pussy-cat developed into a tiger. Total history began to make sense. The randomness of wars became predictable and cyclic, although cyclic as a 5 part harmonic which is not a strict linear cycle. By laying out this graph (map) through the centuries history became transparent, predictable backwards and thusly predictable forward. Oh yes, for those who still wonder, the monkey-wrench preventing reverse-engineering or piecing the parts together correctly is nothing more than phase shifting all basic waves 270 degrees.

Single sine wave graph

My father and grandfather were blacksmiths and implement dealers locally until 1939. I remember my father telling me often about the old wholesale salesmen telling my father and grandfather that agriculture had a 7 years cycle. Considering that it was discovered via observation, they did a marvelous job of defining that cycle! Agriculture is the 6 1/2 year portion of the harmonic. I attribute the 3 1/4 year portion to banking and the 13 year portion to energy (coal, oil, nuclear), and it is anyone's guess what the 26 year and 52 year portions of the cycle relate to. Also, the plot points become "Mid-Year" because the end of The Great Depression was July 1932.

Five Harmonic Cycles based on 52 year depression cycle

Every 3.25 years	Banking flux
Every 6.5 years	Agriculture flux
Every 13 years	Energy flux
Every 26 years	? flux
Every 52 years	? flux

I've invested in most types of markets and intensely analyzed them. I conclude that although the market place is totally manipulated, the manipulators cannot just pull off a caper just any time they please, they have to work with natural cycles which most people discount or are unaware of. I've hunted for 30 years to find the natural cycle that this 52 year cycle is based on, and finally stumbled into it via the internet. The Myan culture had specialized calendar-priests who's only job was to keep track of the relationship of Earth, Venus, Mars and the dog-star [Sirius]. They made major astronomical measurements every 13, 26 and 52 years. That was an elusive fact when digging earnestly, then became so simple in retrospect. The 13, 26, 39 and 52 year points of the harmonic map are the precise low points on the map.

I have given enough information for any serious researcher to duplicate my efforts with minimal effort and time. And to save even more time (although it is good practice to check independently) I've included the "numbers" to create a linear chart of the "Economic Maze" which I call this 5 part harmonic map. The numbers range from -5 to +2. The graph is a mirror image, thusly only 26 numbers are needed. The graph vertical or Y axis becomes 0.1 per unit or equal to the horizontal 1 year unit. You read the year dates above the data numbers as you start your graph and identify the years. When you arrive at 1958 (-3) this is the middle of the mirror 1959 becomes the preceeding number (-1.2) and the year is identified below the data number and continues in reverse applying the numbers to complete the chart.

Somewhere around the zero value (as given in the data numbers) is the dividing line between possibility of wars above, no wars below. History is filled with false names, so do not allow that to confuse you when you place them on an extension of this map. Genuine revolts occur below the zero line. When placing the American Civil War on an extension of the map, it becomes obvious that it was a planned war, which revisionists have done an excellent job of verifying.

Philip N. Ledoux

Data Table #1

Year	1932	1933	1934	1935	1936	1937	1938	1939	1940	1941	1942	1943	1944	linear forward
Data	-5	-3.2	-1.4	-1.9	-0.5	0.3	-1.3	-1.1	1.4	1.0	0.3	1.1	-0.5
Year	1984	1983	1982	1981	1980	1979	1978	1977	1976	1975	1974	1973	1972	linear reversed

 

 

 

Year	1945	1946	1947	1948	1949	1950	1951	1952	1953	1954	1955	1956	1957	1958
Data	-2	-0.2	1.7	1.0	2.1	2.5	0.3	0.2	2.0	1.4	0.1	0.6	-1.2	-3
Year	1971	1970	1969	1968	1967	1966	1965	1964	1963	1962	1961	1960	1959	1958

[Note from Ken Adachi: From the above graph, we can look at history and note that wars began in the years indicated on the upper part of the chart where the coresponding "Data" numbers are close to zero. E.g., for 1936, the Data number is -0.5 and 1936 marked the beginning of the three year Spanish Civil War. In 1941, the Data number is 1.0, while it's 0.3 in 1942 (closer to zero than in the 1941). While Germany attacked Poland in September of 1939, Britain or France did not begin to fight back until later in1940. Pearl Harbor was attacked in December 1941 (closer to 1942), after which the United States got involved in World War II.. The Korean War broke out in 1951 ( Data number of 0.3). The Data number drops near zero again in 1955-56. The conflict that comes to mind is the Russian invasion of Hungary in 1956. There might be others that I'm not recalling.

While 1945 spelled the end of war in Europs and later in the Pacific, the civil war in China war just beginning in 1946 (Data number -0.2) and continued up to 1949 with Mao's overthrowing of Chang Kai-shek.

On the reversed side of the chart, I notice that the low Data numbers in 1964-65 could reflect the beginning of the Vietnam War.

See what major conflicts or wars can be connected with the following years: 1979-1980, 1972, 1961, 1970]

 

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